HOW AND UNDER WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES COULD IRAQ BE SPLIT UP?

January 31, 2012 at 3:59 pm | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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ORSAM Report 102: HOW AND UNDER WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES COULD IRAQ BE SPLIT UP?  BEİNG READY FOR THE WORST (English)

 

The political crisis, which broke out in Iraq short while after the withdrawal of the U.S., brought up the political developments in Iraq in the shadow of the developments centering around the Arab Spring to the agenda again. The stability and future of Iraq started to be discussed both in Turkey and in world public opinion, and many possibilities ranging from good to bad was reassessed. The possibility of Iraq’s splitting has been brought up to the agenda on Turkish news and comments as well, and the arguments related to the solution of political crisis taking place in Iraq also started to be reflected in the press. It is not right to expect this dynamic and ambiguous process in Iraq to immediately turn into a big crisis in country in a short time. However, as all the developments taking place since the U.S. invasion of Iraq have showed over and over again, Iraq is becoming a country, which is getting hard to protect the territorial integrity and political unity with each passing day. It would be good to think the situation outside the box, rather than making simple predictions related to the future of Iraq, whose state authority was destroyed and where a healthy structure could not be established instead, and giving short answers to the question.

In this study, Iraq’s future is strived to be handled within the framework of the current developments in the country and the socio-political structure of the country. At the end of the study, the resulting table shows that there are 4 interrelated possibilities on the future of Iraq. Analyzing these scenarios, each of which are handled within the study, is increasing reasons for being pessimistic about the future of Iraq more and more with each passing day.

Content

  Presentation Executive Summary Introduction

1. Scenarios on the Continuation of the Current Situation in Iraq

1.a. Iraq With A Strong Central Structure

1.a.1. Strengthening the Central Government Through Democratic Methods:

1.a.2.  Strengthening the Central Government Through Armed Conflict

1.a.3. Establishing Centralism By Using the Tools within the System 1. b. Iraq with a Weak Central Structure
1.b.1. The Parties’ Weakening the Centralism on Their Own Wills

1.b.2.  Stopping the Conflict Before It Expands
1.c. Fragile and Unstable Iraq:
1.d. Civil War and Chaotic Environment:
2. The End of the Current Situation: Scenarios of a Split Iraq Scenarios on the Future of Iraq

Full text              
30 January 2012

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