The Effects of the ISIS Operations on the Turkmens in Iraq (ORSAM report)

July 27, 2014 at 9:03 am | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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Turkmens fleeing from Telafer

The Effects of the ISIS Operations on the Turkmens

Bilgay Duman, ORSAM Middle East Researchers

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Change in Iraqi Politics: From Ethnic-Sectarian Lines to Centralization Question

August 14, 2012 at 8:59 am | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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Change in Iraqi Politics: From Ethnic-Sectarian Lines to Centralization Question
Assos. Prof. Serhat Erkmen Middle East Advisor of ORSAM, Ahi Evran University
A process of silent and deep political change has been experienced since the general elections, which was held in Iraq on March 07, 2010. This process has been defined as a change in the structure of political order after the invasion of Iraq. As a result of the analysis of political dynamics which were introduced before in the study entitled “2010 Parliamentary Elections and Political Life in Iraq after the Occupation”, it has been alleged that the politics in Iraq has been rebuilt in accordance with ethnic and religious lines after the invasion of the country and the political alliances have been reshaped over these lines. However, in this article, it will be asserted that the phenomenon of shaping the politics of Iraq in accordance with ethnic and religious lines has experienced a great change as a consequence of the developments that took place in the last two years. In order to support this assumption, basic political developments which were seen in Iraq after the last election will be focused on and the contents of this change will be underlined.According to the author, there are two main reasons that explain the change in the political balances and policy making in Iraq. The first reason is that the United States have started to lose gradually their role both in military and political aspects in Iraq after 2010. Decrease in military power of the US in Iraq in a way that cannot be compared with previous years (even though all the combat troops have retreated, it will not be considered as a complete withdrawal since there are still American troops in Iraq under the name of military advisors) has created great impacts both in the fields of security and the fields of policy and this phenomenon has enlarged the maneuver room of the Iraqi political parties.
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January 31, 2012 at 3:59 pm | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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The political crisis, which broke out in Iraq short while after the withdrawal of the U.S., brought up the political developments in Iraq in the shadow of the developments centering around the Arab Spring to the agenda again. The stability and future of Iraq started to be discussed both in Turkey and in world public opinion, and many possibilities ranging from good to bad was reassessed. The possibility of Iraq’s splitting has been brought up to the agenda on Turkish news and comments as well, and the arguments related to the solution of political crisis taking place in Iraq also started to be reflected in the press. It is not right to expect this dynamic and ambiguous process in Iraq to immediately turn into a big crisis in country in a short time. However, as all the developments taking place since the U.S. invasion of Iraq have showed over and over again, Iraq is becoming a country, which is getting hard to protect the territorial integrity and political unity with each passing day. It would be good to think the situation outside the box, rather than making simple predictions related to the future of Iraq, whose state authority was destroyed and where a healthy structure could not be established instead, and giving short answers to the question.

In this study, Iraq’s future is strived to be handled within the framework of the current developments in the country and the socio-political structure of the country. At the end of the study, the resulting table shows that there are 4 interrelated possibilities on the future of Iraq. Analyzing these scenarios, each of which are handled within the study, is increasing reasons for being pessimistic about the future of Iraq more and more with each passing day.


  Presentation Executive Summary Introduction

1. Scenarios on the Continuation of the Current Situation in Iraq

1.a. Iraq With A Strong Central Structure

1.a.1. Strengthening the Central Government Through Democratic Methods:

1.a.2.  Strengthening the Central Government Through Armed Conflict

1.a.3. Establishing Centralism By Using the Tools within the System 1. b. Iraq with a Weak Central Structure
1.b.1. The Parties’ Weakening the Centralism on Their Own Wills

1.b.2.  Stopping the Conflict Before It Expands
1.c. Fragile and Unstable Iraq:
1.d. Civil War and Chaotic Environment:
2. The End of the Current Situation: Scenarios of a Split Iraq Scenarios on the Future of Iraq

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30 January 2012


November 19, 2011 at 12:01 pm | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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1960’a kadar Irak’taki Türkmenlere ilişkin siyasal, sosyal ya da kültürel bir kuruluştan söz etmek mümkün değildir.

1980’de Türkmenlerin ilk siyasi organizasyonu olarak ifade edilebilecek Irak Milli Demokratik Türkmen Örgütü deklare edilmiştir.

1988 yılında ilk siyasi Türkmen kuruluşu olan Milli Türkmen Partisi kurulmuştur.

Türkmen siyasi hayatındaki dağınıklığın önüne geçmek ve Türkmenler için bir vizyon çizmek amacıyla 1995 yılında Irak Türkmen Cephesi kurulmuştur.

1995 yılında sonra Irak’taki Türkmen siyasi hareketini birinci derece temsil etme ve yönlendirmeyi başarabilen Irak Türkmen Cephesi, 2003’te ABD’nin Irak’ı işgal etmesinin ardından Irak’taki yeni siyasi ortamda da kendine yer bulmaya çalışmıştır.

ABD’nin Irak’a müdahale ettiği 2003’ten Kürt Bölgesel Yönetiminin kontrolündeki Erbil’de resmi faaliyetlerini durduran ITC, merkezini Kerkük’e taşımıştır.

Siyasi çalışmalarını Kerkük ve Bağdat’a kaydıran ITC, 2005, 2009 ve 2010’da Irak’ta yapılan yerel ve genel seçimlere katılarak Irak’ın yeniden yapılanan siyasi sürecinde rol almaya çalışmıştır.

ITC, 2011’deki yönetim ve sistem değişikliğiyle yeni bir yapılanma içerisine girmiştir.





Irak Türkmen Cephesi (ITC) Öncesinde Türkmen Siyasi Örgütlenmesi ve Irak Türkmen Cephesi’nin Kuruluş Çalışmaları

Irak Türkmen Cephesi’nin (Itc) Kuruluş Ve Geçiş Dönemi

Birinci Türkmen Kurultayı/4-7 Ekim 1997

İkinci Türkmen Kurultayı/20-22 Kasım 2000

Üçüncü Türkmen Kurultayı/12-15 Eylül 2003

30 Ocak 2005 Seçimleri Sonrasında ITC ve Dördüncü Türkmen Kurultayı

Beşinci Türkmen Kurultayı/13-14 Temmuz 2008

Ek: Geçmişten Günümüze ITC Başkanları

Metnin Tamamı   


June 8, 2011 at 1:38 pm | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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Property Disagreements in Kirkuk – Kerkük’te Mülk analaşmazlıkları

March 4, 2011 at 2:00 am | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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Ominous Tokens In Strained Iran-Iraq Relations: Are Conflicting Interests On Water Supply Heralding a New Crisis?

January 27, 2011 at 6:35 pm | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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Ominous Tokens In Strained Iran-Iraq Relations: Are Conflicting Interests On Water Supply Heralding a New Crisis?

David Leupold, ORSAM Middle East Research Assistant

In conclusion, I would like to emphasize the seriousness of this issue, referring to a U.N. report published in 2003, stating that 30 of 37 water conflicts within the last 50 years took stage in the Middle East, thus competition in the field of water supply among countries of this region is regarded as a precarious circumstance and raises worries about military conflicts, which could arise from it. 19 Hereby it is important to note that endeavors of Iran to maintain its water supply has not only strained its relations with Iraq, but also most recently with Afghanistan. In fact, the works on the rehabilitation of the Kajaki dam powerhouse, initiated by ISAF forces in 2007, was faced with stern concern by Iranian officials as it controls the water flow to Iran.

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WATER IN THE MIDDLE EAST Weekly Bulletin by ORSAM Water Research Programme

January 6, 2011 at 11:43 am | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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WATER IN THE MIDDLE EAST Weekly Bulletin by ORSAM Water Research Programme


Please click on the link hereunder:



Water in the Middle East of 27 December 2010 – 2 January 2011


    Iraqiya Warns Iran of Salt Water Flow into Iraq


    UNESCO to Identify Groundwater and Alleviate Water Shortages in Iraq


   Syria’s Water Scarcity Park Set to Prove Life Can Be Lived Well with Less Water


   Tehran, Baku Mulling Mechanism for Joint Management of Caspian Sea Water


   Iran calls for Forming Commission Over Water Issue with Afghanistan, Tajikistan


   Israeli Environmental Protection Minister: Climate Change Poses National Security


   Kenya Promises to Safeguard Egypt’s Water Interests


   or Egypt, New Sudan State Threat to Nile


   International Conference: Water and Climate Change in the MENA-Region in


   Almatti Height Increase Welcome, but Water Share Unjust: Karnataka


   Turkey’s Attitude on Transboundary Waters-Ilısu Dam: Will It Be a Disaster or a Miracle?


tamamı »»


Water in the Middle East, ORSAM Water Research Programme

December 27, 2010 at 12:16 pm | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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Water in the Middle East of December 20-26, 2010

 Iranian Factory Seeking to Win License to Chlorine Factory  Project in Wasit

New Study Predicts Tensions Over Middle East Water Shortage

 ‘Iraq Benefits from Ties with Turkey’

Minister: Egypt Will not Supply Water to Israel

 World Bank Approves Greater Beirut Water Supply Project

HRW Critique That Doesn’t Hold Water

 Cabinet Approves Regulations of Water Law

Syria Launches Its First ‘Water-Scarcity Park’

World’s Thirstiest Country Yemen May Be First To Run Out Of Water

Turkish PM Hails Growing Syria Links

 Iraq Rice Yield up as Water,  Power Supplies Grow

 Abu Dhabi Sees Regional Threats to Water Supply

 Sharing of Nile Water Should not be Politicised

 2011 World Water Week Calls for Seminar Proposals

 Outcomes of the 2010 World Water

 To read ORSAM’s report please click on the link below:


December 20, 2010 at 2:34 pm | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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Ethnic and religious conflicts, power struggles and wars have determined and shaped the fate of contemporary Iraq throughout the second half of the last century and into the new millennium. These conflicts have largely prevented the collection of data and therefore healthy analysis of the country’s demography for a long while. The demographic engineering took place during the Baath regime and perhaps still in progress in the country is one key reason why the international community as well as Iraqis themselves do not know for sure what the country is made of, ethnically and religiously. Therefore all studies and reports on Iraq are based on partial data which can be controversial as there is practically no reliable population frame from which anybody can draw representative samples or test the representativeness. The two surveys forming the basis of this book/report are also not free from that potential fallacy. However, given the paucity of data and analysis from war torn Iraq, every little research helps a great deal to understand population dynamics in the country and possibly inform the national and international policy choices.

The two international migration surveys were conducted in Iraq and Turkey respectively. The one conducted in Iraq targeted Iraqi Turkmen households in major cities and towns in the North and Bagdad. The chosen areas where sizeable Turkmen populations exist were surveyed by a random sampling method employed in the field. Although 1500 households were aimed to reach, our field teams were only able to complete questionnaires in a total of 1040 households. About one third of the households were identified as migrant households where at least a member of the household is a migrant or was once a migrant. This is a far higher figure than in many traditional migrant sending countries.
The second survey was carried out almost simultaneously in major cities in Turkey, again by considering where large Turkmen immigrant communities exist. A total of 161 questionnaires were completed most of whom were randomly selected from Iraqi Turkmen Front registers while convenience sampling was used to reach respondents in Istanbul.
In line with my conflict model of migration, Iraqi Turkmen migration is following a pattern that corresponds to lows and peaks of various conflicts and degree of intensity of conflict in Iraq over the time. Turkmen’s perception of relative security in Turkey and other destination countries in comparison to relative insecurity in Iraq is the key driver in their international migration experiences. Apparently background variables such as age, gender, income, education and employment are all playing their part in the decision making. Nevertheless, the wars Iraqis have faced and suffered from during the last two or three decades drew the line between moving and not moving as well as deciding when to move. The largest portion of outmigration took place after 1990.
It was found that Turkmen is a well-educated population with a high tendency to move abroad, particularly to Turkey due to historical and cultural ties. Possibly in response to the tightening immigration admission regimes across the board, as many as 50 per cent of all Turkmen migrants crossed borders without necessary papers or overstayed their permits and visas.
This study presents a story of an unsettled minority population in Iraq and indicates high emigration pressures felt by Turkmen. Given the current uncertainty prevailing in Iraq, one would expect many more have left since our fieldwork and many more are likely to flee their homes in the future unless a multi-ethnic peace is secured in the country.



Executive Summary
Introduction: The Turkmen Question in Iraq 
Chasing the Turkmen: The Two Surveys in the Aftermath of 2003 Invasion 
International Migration Survey in Iraq 
General Characteristics of the Survey Population: Turkmen in Iraq 
Conceptualising Human Mobility in Conflict
Environment of Human Insecurity in Iraq 
Iraqi International Migration 
Iraqi Asylum Seekers 
The Future of International Migration from Iraq 
The Kirkuk Question and Human Mobility 
Turkmen Lebensraum and Emigration from Iraq 
Living Environment of Iraqi Turkmen Population 
Turkmen Households’ Cultural Characteristics 
Opinions and Attitudes Toward Migration and Migration Experiences 
Where Did They Go? How Old Were They When They Gone? 
Turkmen in Iraq Migrated Due to an Environment of Insecurity 
Migrant Characteristics 
Irregular Migration 
Information About Destinations and Composition of Migrant Groups 
The Diaspora: Turkmen Immigrants in Turkey 
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