CSIS: Patterns of Violence in Iraq, Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai

October 25, 2012 at 11:52 pm | Posted in Turkmens | Leave a comment
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Centre for Strategic & International Studies

Patterns of Violence in Iraq

Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai

Anthony H. Cordesman

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy

Working Draft – Revised: October 24, 2012

Note: This draft is being circulated for comments and suggestions. Please provide them to acordesman@gmail.com

AHC 10/24/12

http://csis.org/files/publication/121024_Iraq_Violence.pdf

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 1

IRAQ’S CONTINUING LEVELS OF INTERNAL VIOLENCE……………………………………………………………………………………….. 2

The Underlying Causes of Violence ………………………………………………………………………………………..8

Current Patterns in Violence………………………………………………………………………………………………..19

Polls Show Growing Popular Fears and Dissatisfaction …………………………………………………………42

The Impact of Political, Ethnic, and Sectarian Divisions…………………………………………………………45

The Continuing Role of Violent Extremist Groups…………………………………………………………………..45

The Special Role of the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK) …………………………………………….47

IRAQ’S CRISIS IN LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE…………………………………………………………………………………………….49

The First Round of Iraqi Governments and Elections ……………………………………………………………..49

The January 2009 Governorate Elections………………………………………………………………………………50

The  March 2010 Parliamentary Elections…………………………………………………………………………….50

Struggle Over Iraq’s Electoral Commission…………………………………………………………………………..51

Non-Government by Paralysis……………………………………………………………………………………………..52

The Erbil Agreement (or Lack of It)………………………………………………………………………………………52

Prime Minister Maliki’s efforts to Consolidate Power…………………………………………………………….54

The Hashemi Crisis and Increasing Pressures for Violence……………………………………………………..55

The Challenge of Federalism ……………………………………………………………………………………………….58

A Constantly Evolving Political Crisis at the Top…………………………………………………………………..58

and its Impact on Governance, justice, Corruption, and the Security Services……………………………60

THE SOURCES OF POLITICAL COMPETITION AND OF VIOLENCE BY IRAQI KEY FACTION …………64

The Shi’ites and the Role of Iran…………………………………………………………………………………………64

Maliki’s Role in Dealing with Iran and the US……………………………………………………………………….68

The Sadrists……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….70

SCIRI/ISCI…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………74

The Kurds………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….75

The Sunnis…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………76

THE IRANIAN ROLE IN VIOLENCE IN IRAQ …………………………………………………………………………..80

Iran’s Goals in Iraq and the Al Quds Force ……………………………………………………………………………..81

Combating the US Threat…………………………………………………………………………………………………….82

Projecting Regional Influence………………………………………………………………………………………………82

CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….83

Please see:

http://csis.org/files/publication/121024_Iraq_Violence.pdf

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