It’s been observed that the decreasing violence at the end of the year seems to be on the rise once again in the middle of 2009. Besides that, attacks targeting Turkmens in Iraq have risen incredibly. The bombing attacks in Tazehurmatu, Karakoyun and Tal Afar within three weeks may be accepted as a clear indication of the fact that Turkmens are the only target. For this reason, the incidents targeting Turkmens must be discussed in detail. In brief, this article examines the reasons of those attacks and their possible consequences.
After the attack, carried out in Kirkuk’s Tazehurmatu district on the twentieth of June in 2009, cost more than 80 people’s lives and injured some 200 people, people in Iraq have started to be interested in violence again. It’s impossible to explain the cause of this attack targeting Turkmens by a single motivation. Because the rising violence both in Tazehurmatu and Iraq at large has become too complicated to explain by a single motivation. That’s why, in this article, we will discuss the attack targeting Turkmens in Tazehurmatu in all aspects.
Why Tazehurmatu?
According to the statistics, the incident in Tazehurmatu has been the biggest of all the attacks happened in Iraq for the last one year. There hasn’t been any incident killing so many people at once other than the bombing attack happened in Baghdad in February 2008 and cost 99 people’s lives. However, the Tazehurmatu attack gains more importance when it’s examined along with the other attacks targeting Turkmens recently.
It can be said that Turkmens are under a pressure far beyond the expectations although all the ethnic groups in Iraq have faced various kind of troubles after the invasion. In spite of the fact that there isn’t a certain campaign against Turkmens, those consecutive incidents indicate that there is a series of acts targeting Turkmens and that Turkmens are kept under a systematic and secret oppression.
When we consider the attack in Al-Vahde (Tal Afar) in 2007, another one in Amirli (Tazehurmatu) in 2008 and the last one in Tazehurmatu in 2009 together, we see that almost every year, there is a big attack against Turkmens. Most of those attacks have happened just before or right after the important developments in Iraq.
Below are the reasons why Tazehurmatu has been chosen as a target:
– Since the day when “disputed regions” concept appeared, there have been bloody attacks, emigrations, pressures and struggles for power share in the region extending from the west of Mosul to the east of Diyala. In a sense, those “disputed regions” define the borders of the Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq and an important number of Turkmens live there. After the discussions over the fact that the disputed regions involve certain parts of Tal Afar, Kirkuk, Tazehurmatu and Diyala and that the matter will be handled according to the UN report, bombing attacks, kidnapping events, assassinations and political pressures have risen in those regions. For that reason, the Tazehurmatu incident shouldn’t be examined alone; it must be seen as a series of incidents regarding the geographical region where it is located. In this context, the comments of some Turkmen local authorities – that the tension starting with the prohibition of Kurdish political parties in Tazehurmatu has caused the district to become a target- aren’t too far away from the reality.
The census expected to be made in October 2009 is as much important as the “disputed regions”. After the invasion, the demographic structure in almost every Turkmen region has been tried to be changed. When this has become impossible in some instances, the Turkmen identity has been tried to be wiped out by various pressures. The Tazehurmatu incident should also be considered from this point of view. There are several means of pressure in order to frighten people and prevent them from revealing their own identities. One of these means may be the violent incidents.
– One of the most important reasons of the Tazehurmatu attack is the problem concerning Kirkuk. After the cancellation of the Article 140 in Iraq and then the failure of the Article 23 Commission which has been set up to find a solution to the problem in Kirkuk, the tension has climbed up. On the one hand, the try for giving Kirkuk a special status before the general election; on the other hand, the rift between Arabs and Turkmens in the city make the situation in Kirkuk more problematic. It’s seen that the Iraqi Kurdish groups in the control of the city don’t want to lose the advantage they have taken during the post-invasion period. Although the demographic structure of Kirkuk has been changed to a great extent, still half of this city is composed of Arabs and Turkmens. That’s why maintaining the status quo in Kirkuk is impossible by ignoring their presence. What’s more, other provinces of Iraq give a lot more importance to the Kirkuk problem, as well; regardless of the ethnic and sectarian discrimination, all Iraqi people want Kirkuk to remain a province of the central government and they oppose its becoming a part of the Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq.
As this situation is clearly seen from Maliki’s attitudes, the Iraqi National Assembly took up its position as well on 22 July, 2008. Particularly in recent years, the opposition of Shiite-Arabs against the extreme demands of Kurds concerning Kirkuk is an important matter. The disputes over Kirkuk and the rising tension increases violent acts in the city and produce a suitable ground for a domestic conflict triggered by evil-minded people.
– One of the reasons why Tazehurmatu has become the target is the developments in Iraq at large. The ones who want to increase the tension in Iraq before the elections have speeded up their provocative actions in order to climb up the Sunni-Shiah conflict. The shortest and direct way to trigger the tension again in Iraq, where an extensive Sunni-Shiah war took place between the years 2005-2007, is to provoke this rift. The groups following conflicting policies, especially the ones who couldn’t get what they wanted during the political process in Iraq; old partisans of Baath who were tricked with unfulfilled promises and the Al-Qaida trying to get stronger, continue to target the Shiites in Iraq.
When we observe the acts in Iraq recently, except for the ones targeting directly the police and military forces, all the victims of large-scale attacks are Shiites. Therefore, the actions in the controversial regions are focused on Shiite-Turkmens because of being a Shiite and a Turkmen at the same time. Usually, nobody takes responsibility for those attacks and Al-Qaida is said to be responsible. When we take into consideration the actions and policies of Al-Qaida concerning the Shiah and the Iraqi Shiites, it is hard to say otherwise. However, it isn’t true to put the blame on Al-Qaida after every striking and unknown act. As a matter of fact, it’s seen that Al-Qaida doesn’t claim responsibility for the incident in Tazehurmatu although it has claimed so for many others in Iraq so far. It shouldn’t be forgotten that certain organizations or groups under cover of Al-Qaida plan attacks targeting Shiites in Iraq and that later they put the blame on Al-Qaida. The emphasis on the necessity of making the Turkmen settlements (such as Tazehurmatu and Tal Afar) a province may be regarded as one of the dynamics causing the attack. Those suggestions have the political potential of affecting the political structure on the Mosul-Diyala line radically.
– The process of U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq affects mostly the timing of the Tazehurmatu incident. The process of gathering the U.S. soldiers in military bases has to be completed on the thirtieth of June. That process has triggered many factors in Iraq. Kurdish groups perceive the U.S. troop withdrawal as a new threat targeting their authority, because they believe that the Iraqi army will set foot on certain regions and that they will lose their power after the withdrawal of U.S. troops. On the other hand, both the Iraqi Government and some resisting and terrorist groups see the withdrawal of U.S. troops as an opportunity. The Prime Minister Maliki wants to continue his role of providing security by showing that he is powerful enough to maintain security in the cities from which U.S. troops withdrew and to increase his political success by that means. For that reason, he may plan interfering in problematic and conflicting regions immediately and so show off his power. However, insurgents and terrorist groups may also consider retaking the military and physiological advantage during the process of U.S. troop withdrawal and so preparing for the post-withdrawal period. They may be thinking that the Iraqi army won’t be able to stop them and that they will get the edge over in field without the U.S. support. Although Maliki government can suppress the acts with the help of the USA, resisters will still be advantageous, because they will show that Maliki isn’t able to provide security only by himself. This situation may cause both the USA and the Iraqi political groups to change strategy. Therefore, within this period, a rise in conflicts is expected. Those conflicts are likely to target Shiites especially in regions such as the Mosul-Diyala line where they can spread right after the start, the Kurd-Arab-Turkmen conflict area, Baghdad and Diyala.
The Facts Uncovered with the Tazehurmatu Incident And The Expectations for the Near Future
Unfortunately, the incident in Tazehurmatu indicates that the attacks targeting Turkmens will never end. In this context, it’s meaningful to choose such a calm and insignificant city as a target since the Iraq invasion. The testimonies of some innocent Turkmen victims after the attack- that they weren’t engaged in any acts and that they couldn’t understand why they were chosen- are the proof of the unsafe situation in every part of Iraq. Within this context, similar incidents may happen in Kirkuk, Tal Afar, Tazehurmatu and Diyala’s Turkmen-populated sub-districts such as Karatepe, Celevle and Mandali in the near future.
It can be said that the pressures over the problematic regions will rise and that those pressures will focus on Turkmens as the day for the census is getting closer. For Turkmens, the biggest population after Kurds and Arabs in Iraq, the most important opportunity to demonstrate their presence is the census. But, it’s seen as a threat by certain groups since the places which cause problem between the Iraqi Government and the Kurdish National Government in Northern Iraq, are mostly populated by Turkmens. The Turkmen presence, becoming a power share conflict in those regions, carries new risks for Turkmens.
How to Read the Last Attack in Tal Afar?
The incident in Tal Afar on the ninth of July, 2009 shows that the pressure and fear process targeting Turkmens still goes on violently than ever. Over 125 people died and almost 300 people were injured in three bombing attacks in Tazehurmatu (Kirkuk), Mosul and Tal Afar within three weeks. All the victims killed in those three attacks were all Shiites. The attacks seem to be related to the withdrawal of U.S. troops, revival of the Sunni-Shi’ah conflict and problem of the stability in the controversial regions.
Mosul’s district Tal Afar and Karakoyun village have been attacked consecutively after the Tazehurmatu attack. The attack in Tal Afar was organized by two young people in Kale region. In order to cost many lives, the second attack was carried out right after the first attack which gathered many people on-scene. The attackers are known to be close to Al-Qaida. In the report which was published by ORSAM, some people who were engaged in attacks in the past are said to be still living in Tal Afar. However, it’s been thought that those people stay away from the attacks for the time being. The actors of the attack are from Tal Afar and this situation may scare the people that old days have come back. Nonetheless, it can be said that Tal Afar people won’t be provoked by those agitations and that they will try to avoid a cycle of violence triggered by this attack.
The other incident happened in Karakoyun village, Mosul, on the eighth of July, 2009. An attack was carried out to the Shiite mosque in Karakoyun where Turkmens live mostly. 7 people died and 11 were injured. That day, 12 people died and 28 people were injured in another attack in Baveza village where Shebeks live. This village is very close to Karakoyun.
When the developments after the Tazehurmatu attack and successive bombing attacks have been considered, we get a picture like this:
– On the line called the “disputed regions” extending from the northwest of Mosul (Tal Afar) to Tazehurmatu in Kirkuk there have been several attacks. Turkmens live mostly in those regions. Except for the one targeting Kurds in Kirkuk, all the other attacks have targeted the Shiites (especially Turkmen ones). Recently, there have been attacks in Baghdad as well. The target of those attacks was Shiites again. Therefore, it can be said that a campaign has been launched in order to increase the pressures over Shiites and trigger a new period of conflicts. Almost all the inhabitants on this line are Turkmens, so they become the target. The apparent dimension of those attacks is the motivation to provoke the Sunni-Shiah conflict. As a matter of fact, the attacks have happened right after Abu Omar al-Baghdadi’s statement, an important leader of Al-Qaida, that they will increase the resistance. As you see, all grounds for triggering the conflicts are produced. Every city is under danger from a calm place like Tazehurmatu to a place that went through important conflicts in the past, but has calmed down today like Mosul. If a sectarian conflict is aimed or the tension is tried to be increased by sectarian divisions and a fait accompli is being planned; then the possibility of attacks targeting Shiite-Turkmens especially in the controversial regions is very high.
– The general security situation in the country deteriorates during the process of U.S. troop withdrawal. Similar incidents have been seen in Nasiriye, Baghdad and Hilla although it was limited to a few regions in the past. It can be said that the credibility and competence of the Iraqi army will be questioned during the U.S. troop withdrawal since people already have doubts about them. Furthermore, there may be rumors that the Iraqi army is ineffective in its own regions and so, they should cooperate with local powers.
– Every other day, Maliki’s government is getting into trouble a little bit more in Baghdad since they couldn’t solve the serious problems with the Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq and aren’t able to integrate Sunnis into the system. Being in a tight corner because of the political problems, Maliki isn’t able to stop new attacks, most of which target Shiites. Therefore, he may fall out of favor among Shiites. For that reason, if the Iraqi Government can’t change the course of events, it may lose the advantage concerning security and stability.
Conclusion
As the last incident has indicated, Turkmens are one of the most vulnerable communities of Iraq. Since they don’t have a self-security mechanism, they are open to any kind of attack and they are the potential targets. The formation of solutions like “Awakening Forces” with the help of the Iraqi Government, at least in certain parts of Iraq where Turkmens live mostly may contribute to the protection of Turkmens.
Finally, we have to revaluate the Turkmen matter in terms of Turkey’s agenda. Having taken the conscientious responsibility in the Middle East, Turkey should show the same sympathy for the incidents in Iraq as it showed for the ones in Gaza. Turkey sent humanitarian aid to the region right after the Tazehurmatu attack and has become the first country to give a helping hand to Turkmens. The importance of those aids is great as they show that Turkmens aren’t alone. However, those incidents don’t take much place in Turkey’s agenda; in addition, the problems and pressures Turkmens face don’t have the necessary press coverage they deserve.
July 20 2009
Serhat Erkmen, ORSAM Middle East Advisor,
Assist. Prof. Dr., Ahi Evran University
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