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Developments in northern Iraq

 Mosque, Dahuk, northern Iraq

 Dr.Ramazan Gözen

Recent developments give hints of US policy toward Iraq and re-structuring of the country.

Posted 26.08.2009
The Agenda
Author: Professor Dr.Ramazan Gözen of Ankara´s Çankaya University

Three important developments took place in July 2009 regarding Iraq, the autonomous region in the north of Iraq to be more precise. One of these was Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki´s visit to the US, where he held talks with President Obama and with the UN officials. The second was the surprise rise of the Kurdish parties opposed to Barzani and Talabani as a result of the elections held for the regional parliament. The third was US Secretary of state Robert Gates´ visit to Iraq and the Kurdish region in the north of the country.

These three developments are very important in terms of the re-structuring of Iraq and the revelation of the Iraq policy of the new US administration under President Obama.

Iraq has been the scene of very critical developments for the past one year. Apart from the 1980-1988 war with Iran, the Iraqis saw many battles in the tough process which started with Saddam´s occupation of Kuwait in August 1990 and suffered serious economic and political hardships. The biggest breaking point in this process was the occupation of Iraq in March 2003 by the United States in defiance of the UN and many other countries. The confrontations between US troops and Iraqi insurgents were compounded by fierce clashes and acts of terrorism between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites, which increased the risk of a civil war. Another issue which surfaced during this period was the uncertainty regarding the status of the Kurdish region in the north of Iraq and the discussions surrounding it.

Some were of the view that Iraq was going to be partitioned by the US and its allies and the setting up of a Kurdish state would follow. In point of fact, the statements and the attitude by former President Bush and some US representatives contained some clues supportive of this view. The open support given by the Bush administration to Talabani and Barzani and their inaction vis a vis the separatist and secessionist rhetoric and actions by the Kurdish chiefs gave cause for alarm. This was something which could easily pave the way not only for the breaking away of the northern part of Iraq from the central administration based in Baghdad but also the strengthening of the PKK and other terror organizations holed up in the north of Iraq, which posed a big danger for Turkey and the neighbouring countries. This damaged the peace and stability of both Iraq and its neighbours.

The recent three important developments brought into existence some strong clues conducive to the settlement of these problems. A favourable process in terms of re-assuring Iraq´s national, political and territorial unity was kicked off. US President Obama who met Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki in Washington stressed the importance of Iraq´s territorial integrity and said the Iraqi government should act towards helping Arabs and Kurds resolve the problems between them. He also said there was need for input to have Kurds strengthen their relations with Baghdad and the Kurdish administration in the north of the country to remain as part of the central authority.

What Obama asked of Maliki in Washington was repeated by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates when he paid a visit to Iraq and the administration in the north. Gates who held talks with Maliki, Barzani and the other representatives said the US wanted the political rifts in Iraq resolved and such disputes between Arabs and Kurds as the status of Kirkuk, oil and the borders of the Kurdish administration in the north be sorted out by 2011 when all US troops in Iraq are to be withdrawn.

These demands and pressures can be considered as the highlights of Washington´s new Iraq policy. We see that the US has realized that partitioning of Iraq or the outbreak of a civil war can be most dangerous for US interests in the first place. Washington is also seen to have clearly understood that stability and peace must be restored to Iraq, the terror organizations operating on Iraqi soil must be eliminated and the religious and ethnic groups in the country must be united around the central structure in Baghdad for all these looming dangers to be eradicated.

Even if this change of mind on the part of the US falls short of meeting the demands of separatist Kurds, it is obvious it is going to be a development supported by the other Kurdish groups. As we have seen in the latest regional elections, the parties and groups in favour of rapprochement with the central administration in Baghdad garnered 30 percent of the vote. These groups are also seen as a strong opposition to the hegemonic leadership of Barzani and Talabani.

One of the actors supporting Washington´s new Iraq policy is Turkey. Turkey has recently boosted its relations with both the central administration in Baghdad and the regional one in the north for Iraq´s territorial and national unity to be restored and the PKK elements to be driven out of the region. Turkey´s policy in this direction is getting solid support from the regional countries , the Iraqi groups and the US administration.